This article is based on research conducted as a part of the CA POST Command College. It is a futures study of a particular emerging issue of relevance to law enforcement. Its purpose is not to predict the future; rather, to project a variety of possible scenarios useful for planning and action in anticipation of the emerging landscape facing policing organizations.
The article was created using the futures forecasting process of Command College and its outcomes. Managing the future means influencing it – creating, constraining and adapting to emerging trends and events in a way that optimizes the opportunities and minimizes the threats of relevance to the profession.
Explore this article to uncover insights on these issues:
- Sustainability measures and green tech lack forethought for law enforcement.
- Climate change impacts amplify safety, budget challenges across the U.S.
- California’s ambitious renewable energy goals necessitate major infrastructure changes.
- Electric vehicle mandates introduce significant operational and budgetary issues for police.
- Police departments must strategically plan for electric vehicle adoption and energy resilience.
By Captain Erwin Manansala
The current shift toward sustainability measures and green technology without adequate forethought and planning is one of the most pressing existential threats to the law enforcement profession on the horizon.
Throughout the nation, legislative mandates around sustainability measures and the adoption of green technology are proliferating at a rapid pace. Most of these directives have no carve-outs or delayed timelines for public safety entities to implement mandates like sustainably powered infrastructure or conversions to electric vehicles (EVs). Being proactive about adopting these mandates, though, will allow law enforcement agencies to facilitate a seamless transition toward sustainability, enhance current levels of operational readiness and better project budgetary issues around the shift toward an environmentally conscious future.
The impact of climate change is far-reaching
Climate scientists have determined the world is emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at an unprecedented pace. [1] The effects of these increased emissions are contributing to global climate change, translating to effects that will alter the world’s geographical landscape, availability of natural resources and overall ability of people to inhabit various regions. Climate change is responsible for the increased frequency and ferocity of California wildfires and is contributing to warmer conditions and climates that lead to droughts and water shortages in reservoirs and water-supply systems. [2]
Its impacts are far-reaching but have the potential to be particularly drastic in the United States. Changes in temperature, rainfall and severe weather will touch almost every facet of American life. Among the costs will be regulations that govern energy production and consumption, infrastructure changes, reduced water use and availability, changes to agriculture and the vehicle and transportation sector, and impacts to public safety budgets and capabilities, to name a few. Like everyone else, the police will undoubtedly be impacted by climate change and legislation geared at reducing its effects.
As the climate crisis has gained traction over recent decades, efforts to reverse its effects have grown. Numerous state and local governments have enacted measures aimed at reducing pollution and adopting green technology, a term that describes the use of technology and science to reduce human impacts on the natural environment. [3] California legislation such as SB 1020, enacted in 2022, calls for a phased approach to achieve the goal of 100% retail electricity fueled by renewables (wind, solar and related means) by 2045. As part of the phased approach, interim timeline goals mandate that 90% of retail electricity and 100% of state agency-sourced energy be supplied by renewable energy by 2035. [4]
Challenges arise, however, in working to achieve these renewable energy goals. Renewables, unlike fossil fuel-based energy, have dormant periods (when there is no sunlight or wind) when they don’t generate electricity. John Moura, director of reliability assessment at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), said, “Renewables also don’t map to where demand is, unlike fossil fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take 7-15 years.” [5] This will create a need for massive infrastructure overhauls to be enacted at an accelerated pace.
How will we pay for green energy?
The funding sources to overhaul the energy infrastructure and the acquisition of green technologies will be a chief concern to municipalities and their law enforcement agencies. The cost to upgrade to a sustainable energy source grid for cities and counties will be staggering. Some studies suggest that to achieve the goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions within the U.S. by 2050, we will need to spend $9.2 trillion in GDP (gross domestic product) annually through 2050. [6] Moreover, the price to outfit many police facilities and city and county buildings with adequate EV charging infrastructure and microgrids to have backup power will be costly as well.
Depending on existing infrastructure, EV charging engineering and construction firms already estimate costs to be in the hundreds of thousands per unit to install high-powered direct current (DC) chargers for police vehicles. [7] These estimates strongly indicate that city, county and law enforcement agency budgets will be drastically impacted as funds now used to deliver services are diverted for these costs.
A leading indicator of future mandates and their associated costs is the ambitious and sweeping green initiative regarding electric vehicles enacted in August 2022 by the California Air Resources Board, a powerful environmental regulatory arm within the state. That measure adopts a phased approach to mandate automakers maintain a certain ratio of electric vehicles as part of all California new car sales annually. The mandate will require 35% of all new car sales in 2026 to be EV, 68% by 2030, and 100% sold to be EV by 2035. [8]
Concerns arise as to whether these ambitious mandates are even attainable. John Bozella, president and CEO of the Alliance of Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing automakers, described the California timeline as “very aggressive” and added, “Whether or not these requirements are realistic or achievable is directly linked to external factors like inflation, charging and fuel infrastructure, supply chains, labor, critical mineral availability and pricing and the ongoing semiconductor shortage. These are complex, intertwined and global issues well beyond the control of either the California Air Resources Board or the auto industry.” [8] It is important to note there are no legislative carve-outs or exceptions in these regulations for law enforcement agencies to phase away their current mainly gas-powered fleets in spite of the operational issues the future EV fleet may bring.
Even as mandates create a certainty for the future, a litany of concerns exists with the adoption of EVs for the police. One major concern is the average range EVs can drive on a charge. Most officers assigned to municipalities drive fewer than 100 miles per shift; however, law enforcement officers assigned to rural areas or counties with hundreds of miles of roadway may drive many more miles than their urban counterparts. [9] This may mean deploying emergency vehicles in areas with insufficient charging infrastructure. Reservations concerning all-EV fleets also center on the extended charging time necessary between shifts in a culture where a traditional gas-powered police car may be driven 24 hours a day by different personnel without extended downtime. In emergency circumstances, it may not be practical for officers to swap out vehicles when deployed at a critical incident, meaning fewer emergency vehicles to respond to critical incidents could be the norm.
The police will also have to deal with the reality that when EVs have largely been adopted by the public, emergencies such as wildfires, natural disasters or terrorist attacks may cripple the power grid and mean some in danger will not be able to leave in a timely fashion. Scenarios where the population lacks the ability to charge EVs and evacuate danger areas could spell disaster for public safety operations.
Facing the reality of coming EV mandates and the insufficient power grid that may not be expanded in time to meet increases in EV ownership, what can police leaders do today to ensure a seamless transition to green technology and comply with legislative mandates while maintaining operational readiness and capability for public safety operations?
Preparing for the transition to green technology
As California law enforcement agencies consider how to maintain readiness and capability while ensuring compliance with sustainability initiatives and green technology mandates, they should develop plans and contingencies to mitigate the impact of that transition. Throughout 2023, the author convened several panels of experts composed of representatives from the energy, EV and policy sectors, as well as law enforcement, to provide perspectives into the impacts of green technology on law enforcement in coming years. These panels produced various insights and considerations:
1. Establishing energy resilience protocols
As energy providers shift toward sustainable energy generation, the police should work with elected officials and public utility companies to establish protocols and contingency plans to mitigate and rapidly recover from extensive outages due to natural disasters, extreme weather events, wildfires or terror attacks.
2. Accelerating the shift to electric vehicles
Law enforcement agencies should immediately begin working with elected officials and vehicle fleet managers to implement plans to begin the steady acquisition of EVs to supplement their vehicle fleets as they phase out their gas-powered fleets in the next several years. Contingency plans should also be established in the event EV manufacturers cannot keep pace with demand. As the ramp-up toward EVs due to mandates occurs, major U.S. automakers will likely begin decreasing their production of gas-powered vehicles in coming years. This may cause a supply chain disruption to gas-powered vehicles.
3. Building sustainable energy and charging infrastructure
Law enforcement agencies should immediately begin working with elected officials and public utility companies to begin the build-out of EV charging infrastructure and sustainable energy infrastructure aimed at supporting public safety missions. In the event of natural disasters, wildfires, extreme weather events or terror attacks on the power grid, it is imperative that public safety agencies function seamlessly and effectively despite operational challenges. Working to build resiliency within the electric grid and provide a means to sustainably deliver power to public safety is essential to the continuity of law enforcement operations.
4. Planning for disaster response in an EV-dominant future
The police should work with federal and state disaster preparedness agencies (e.g., California Office of Emergency Services, Federal Emergency Management Agency) and public utility providers to establish plans and contingencies for widespread disaster response in scenarios where EVs are being massively utilized by both law enforcement and the public and most of the power grid relies on renewables. When EV transportation becomes the norm, public safety will need to have contingencies to facilitate large-scale evacuations and rescues if charging infrastructure becomes inoperable.
5. Budgeting for green technology transition
Law enforcement should immediately begin working with elected officials to project and propose budgets that account for the transition to renewable energy infrastructure and EVs. Since the transition will likely be costly, it is important to identify projected costs so a standard of public safety operations can be maintained.
6. Advocating for flexible EV mandates for public safety
The police should work with elected officials to propose amendments to the current EV mandates to allow exceptions based on projected public safety needs. Exceptions should focus on allowing the acquisition of gas-powered vehicles – including mobile command posts and larger vehicles – beyond EV mandate timelines and also allow for the redundant acquisition of additional gas-powered vehicles to accommodate time lags until suitable infrastructure and operational contingencies are addressed.
Conclusion
As green energy mandates approach, law enforcement has an opportunity to become leaders or followers. Police leaders must recognize that if they don’t become proactive in creating a green future specific to public safety, they may be left to clamber for workable solutions when mandates arrive.
Continue the discussion
1. Assessment of current infrastructure: What is the current state of our infrastructure, and how prepared are we to support sustainable energy and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations?
2. Operational impact evaluation: How will the transition to green technologies and EVs impact our day-to-day operations, response times, and overall readiness?
3. Financial planning and budgeting: What are the projected costs associated with transitioning to green technologies and EVs, and how will this affect our budget and resource allocation?
4. Training and adaptation strategies: What training and adaptation strategies are in place for our personnel to efficiently operate and maintain new green technologies and EVs?
5. Partnership and community engagement: How can we work with local governments, utility companies, and the community to facilitate a smooth transition to green practices and technologies?
References
1. Lindsey R. Climate change: Atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate.gov. May 2023.
2. Mulkern AC. California’s 2020 wildfires negated years of emission cuts. Scientific American. October 2022.
3. Kenton W. What is green tech? How it works, types, adoption, and examples. Investopedia. January 2022.
4. Lopez N. California approves big climate change steps – but one ambitious one fails. CalMatters. September 2022.
5. Clifford C. California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in next five years. CNBC. December 2022.
6. Krishnan M, Samandari H, Wo J, et al. The economic transformation: what would change in the net-zero transition. McKinsey & Company. 2022.
7. Miller D. California’s gas-car phaseout brings turmoil to mom-and-pop gas stations. Los Angeles Times. October 2022.
8. Lopez N. California phases out new gas cars – so what’s next for electric cars? CalMatters. August 2022.
9. Benson M, Bertram T. Debunking the top 10 electric vehicle myths in law enforcement. Police1. January 2022.
About the author
Erwin Manansala is 20-year veteran of the San Diego Police Department and currently serves as the captain and commanding officer overseeing the Northern Patrol Division. He has worked a wide variety of assignments including patrol, investigations, administration and SWAT. He is a graduate of POST Command College Class 71.