Today we must consider the ramifications of the terror attack two days ago in Canada — in which a recent convert to Islam intentionally ran over two Canadian soldiers, killing one and injuring another — as well as what we can presently surmise to be a follow-on terror attack today in which a gunman shot and wounded a Canadian soldier before entering Parliament and unleashing numerous shots.
Let’s start with the bottom line: In terms of terrorism threats to the United States homeland, lone wolves and grassroots Jihadis remain the biggest threat. We need no further illustration of this than this week’s attacks on our neighbor to the north.
The 25-year-old killer in Monday’s attack “had been on the radar of federal investigators, who feared he had jihadist ambitions.” The assailant had posted on his Facebook page statements that “had extolled Islamic State violence, expressed anti-Semitic sentiments and denigrated Christianity.”
Shifting from Dramatic to Doable
Terrorism expert Scott Stewart, who serves as Vice President of Analysis for geopolitical intelligence firm STRATFOR, wrote in an analysis about Monday’s attack that “considering the number of people who have become radicalized, it is actually remarkable that more grassroots jihadist attacks have not occurred in the West.”
Indeed. Because of the repeated failure of individuals and small cells to pull off the ‘spectacular attack’ — Mohamed Osman Mohamud, Faisal Shahzad, Najibullah Zazi — I’ve often wondered what’s preventing these guys from going low tech.
The attacks in Canada may signal a shift in tactics on the part of the homegrown Jihadis. This is something we all need to be vigilant against.
In September, I wrote:
“Imagine the chilling effect on the collective American psyche from some lone-wolf Jihadi kidnapping a random citizen and posting an online video of their beheading.”
Just a few days later, a 30-year-old American man who converted to Islam during a recent stint in prison — and who had been accused of trying to convert his colleagues to Islam — beheaded a woman at an Oklahoma food processing plant. That attacker had repeatedly celebrated terrorists and terrorist attacks on his Facebook page, writing at one point “Sharia law is coming, Freedom can go to hell.”
This is what people in law enforcement call a clue.
Although nobody in an official government post has yet declared that to be a lone wolf terrorist attack, something looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, you’ve probably got a duck.
I very much am the sort of guy to say “I told you so.”
The recent vehicle-based attack in Canada mirrors a tactic suggested in Inspire magazine: run over victims with a vehicle. If memory serves, that issue also advised that this be done by literally plowing over pedestrians with pick-up truck equipped with a snow-plow. I’ve advised Police1 Members about Inspire magazine more times than I can count. If you’re not familiar with it, get familiar. Fast. Ask your local JTTF for a copy of every edition of that insidious publication. It’s where the Tsarnaev brothers got their instructions on “making a bomb in the kitchen of your mom.”
As Stewart correctly stated in his analysis, the attacks in Canada this week are the “type of attack we expect from grassroots jihadists, who are eager to fight but generally lack the terrorist tradecraft required to conduct a more sophisticated attack. Quite frequently, these individuals stumble into law enforcement stings when they seek the capability to conduct a more sophisticated attack. Those who decide to conduct a simple attack like the Boston Marathon bombers, however, generally succeed.”
Review the pre-attack indicators of terrorist activity — including financing surveillance, elicitation, probing, acquisition, dry runs, and deployment — and ponder this statement from an ISIS spokesperson in late September: “If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, then single out the disbelieving American, Frenchman, or any of their allies. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him.”
