By Lt. Glenn R. Albin (Ret.)
Last month, a man drove from Nevada to New York City, killed four people — including a police officer — and then himself.
In the days after, we heard the familiar calls: the need for tougher gun laws and better mental health services, and the condemnation of “evil.” But one thing was missing. A frank acknowledgment that most acts of targeted violence can be detected and disrupted before the first shot is fired. The tool that makes this possible already exists: Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM).
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Violence doesn’t just “happen”
Contrary to popular belief, people rarely “snap.” Decades of research show that attackers often follow a predictable pathway to violence, marked by planning, grievance, and escalating behaviors. These “warning behaviors” — identified in studies by experts like Dr. Frederick Calhoun and Dr. J. Reid Meloy — are often visible to those around them long before an attack.
California lawmakers recognized this reality after the 2021 mass shooting at the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) yard, which left nine dead. They passed Senate Bill 553, requiring most workplaces to adopt workplace violence prevention plans and encouraging BTAM teams. The goal: create a system to spot and intervene with individuals moving along the pathway to violence.
What BTAM does
BTAM isn’t just for law enforcement. It’s a multidisciplinary practice that brings together police, mental health professionals, educators, corporate leaders, and legal experts to identify, assess, and manage threats.
It starts with early identification. The U.S. Secret Service and FBI have found that most attackers never directly threaten their targets — instead, their intentions “leak” in subtler ways: fixation on a grievance, sudden changes in behavior, or uncharacteristic aggression. Trained observers and open lines of communication across sectors are essential to spotting these patterns.
From there, trained teams use structured professional judgment (SPJ) tools such as WAVR-21, TRAP-18, or the FBI’s “Making Prevention a Reality” framework (available in full below). These tools integrate both static and dynamic factors, helping assess not just if someone poses a threat, but how and under what conditions that threat might materialize. Blind assessor reviews — where the evaluator does not know the subject’s identity — can reduce bias and increase objectivity.
Managing the risk
Assessment alone doesn’t save lives — management does. BTAM is about ongoing engagement with the person of concern. That might mean involving family, connecting someone to mental health care, addressing workplace disputes, or using legal measures like Gun Violence Restraining Orders.
Importantly, BTAM recognizes that mental illness is neither a sole cause nor a reliable predictor of violence. But in some cases, it can increase risk by reducing coping capacity or magnifying stressors. The link between suicidality and homicidality, seen in many targeted attacks, underscores the need for compassionate, non-stigmatizing interventions.
The Department of Homeland Security and state-level task forces agree: the best results come from multidisciplinary teams. These teams design interventions that are not only effective but also lawful, ethical, and humane.
Beyond schools and government
Too often, BTAM is viewed as something for schools or government agencies. In reality, workplaces, universities, and public venues are increasingly at risk — and increasingly covered by laws like California’s SB 553 and SB 906.
Prevention is not a luxury. It is a legal safeguard, a moral responsibility, and a sound business decision. Every mass attack averted spares lives, reputations, and millions in litigation and recovery costs.
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Why we haven’t fully embraced BTAM
There are three main reasons BTAM is still underused:
- Awareness – Many organizations still think prevention starts with security cameras or guards, rather than identifying concerning behavior upstream.
- Training – Without investment in trained assessors and structured tools, prevention efforts rely on hunches — and hunches are inconsistent.
- Culture – In some workplaces, fear of liability or “getting involved” prevents early reporting. Ironically, the absence of reporting creates more liability when violence occurs.
The time to act is now
The Manhattan shooting last month will fade from the headlines, replaced by the next tragedy. The pattern is depressingly familiar — and preventable.
We don’t have to wait for another set of vigils, another round of speeches, another cycle of grief. We can start now:
- Law enforcement: Integrate BTAM units into standard operations, train officers in structured professional judgment (SPJ) tools, and partner with mental health professionals.
- Employers: Establish workplace violence prevention plans that include threat assessment teams.
- Educators: Train staff to recognize and report warning behaviors early.
- Policymakers: Support funding for multidisciplinary teams and require BTAM in high-risk environments.
BTAM is not a cold security protocol — it is a philosophy grounded in empathy, evidence and shared responsibility. When we recognize concerning behaviors early, investigate them with validated tools, and manage risk through collaborative intervention, we protect both lives and liberties.
Violence is not inevitable. But prevention won’t happen by accident. It takes investment, training, and the courage to act before the first shot is fired.
BTAM training resources for law enforcement
Looking to build or expand your agency’s behavioral threat assessment program? These resources provide training, tools and guidance:
- Department of Homeland Security – Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management Programs
- FBI – Making Prevention a Reality guide and training framework
- U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) – research, case studies and operational guides
- Association of Threat Assessment Professionals (ATAP) – training, certification and networking for BTAM practitioners
About the author
Glenn Albin retired in June 2025 after a 28-year career with the San Jose (California) Police Department, where he rose to the rank of lieutenant. He specialized in investigations, special operations, and behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM). A POST Master Instructor and DHS Master Trainer, he has taught nationwide on topics including BTAM, interview and interrogation, leadership and workplace violence prevention. Glenn is the founder of GA Solutions, a consulting and training firm focused on practical threat management strategies, and is active in ASIS, ATAP and other professional associations.
