By Mark Brown
The Chicago Sun-Times
It’s been a week now since Mayor Daley’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election, and with each passing day, the list of would-be candidates to replace him just gets longer and longer.
Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas was the latest Monday to make the don’t-forget-about-me case, which now makes it a quorum of county elected officials with Sheriff Tom Dart, Assessor Jim Houlihan and Clerk David Orr already having staked a claim.
Former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun popped up out of the memory banks over the weekend to show an interest, while U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez and the Rev.-Sen. James Meeks went so far as to start their petition drives to get on the ballot.
This follows President Obama’s quasi-endorsement of his chief of staff Rahm Emanuel last week, which gave the former congressman cover to delay his formal decision until after the November election, not that he’ll wait that long to make his moves.
But one thing hasn’t changed since the moment Daley dropped his bomb: Dart still shapes up as the candidate to beat.
That’s a tenuous assessment, to be sure, given the Sun-Times’ quickie poll last week that showed Dart barely leading the other expected contenders with 12 percent of the respondents picking him, while Meeks was the only other name registering double digits at 10 percent.
Those are hardly intimidating poll numbers, certainly nothing that would scare off the likes of Emanuel, who others seem to believe is the favorite, and indeed, should not be underestimated.
In fact, as far as I know, there are no measurable indices that would prove the point that Dart is the front-runner at this stage, which must make it all the more baffling to those of you watching the process from a distance.
Yet increasingly that is indeed the view of the political insiders trying to make their own calculations. And I agree. So why is that?
It’s a combination of factors, but first and foremost, it’s that Dart has the most favorable public image at this point.
People like what they see of him, and they’ve seen more of him in a short time than they have most Cook County sheriffs.
From his temporary moratorium on foreclosure evictions to his hands-on involvement in cleaning up the Burr Oak Cemetery scandal, Dart has managed to put a softer, more thoughtful face on a traditionally hard-edged law enforcement post.
He’s also managed to avoid scandal, no small thing given that he runs the jail system and an army of employees historically prone to wrongdoing, although his short stewardship is bound to draw much closer scrutiny if he enters the mayoral race than it has so far.
Before he was sheriff, Dart built a reputation as an independent-minded legislator with an interest in social issues.
But part of what makes people view Dart as a serious candidate is that his roots aren’t in independent politics but in the 19th Ward, the longtime stronghold of Democratic Party kingmakers.
That means at least a part of the professional political community is in his corner, and in fact has been grooming him for this opportunity. Don’t forget that Dart was anointed the Democratic nominee for sheriff on the same day incumbent Michael Sheahan announced he was stepping aside. These folks know how to run a campaign.
And, of course, while being Irish isn’t a prerequisite for getting elected mayor of Chicago, it’s still an advantage.
Surprisingly, Dart doesn’t start the campaign with much money at his disposal -- less than $200,000 at the end of June, but there’s a belief he could raise it. Although Emanuel would probably be the first choice of the business community, the expectation is they’d be comfortable with Dart, too.
Another reason those on the inside look at Dart as a favorite is that he’s on the short list of those they can envision actually doing the job of mayor, not just getting elected.
Dart could BE the mayor. Emanuel could BE the mayor. So could Houlihan, Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and maybe CTA Board Chairman Terry Peterson.
It’s not as clear about some of the others, many of whom are going to be very irritated at me for saying that.
Put it all together, and that makes Dart the most likely to make that 12 percent into 51 percent.
But don’t forget: It’s going to be dangerous to be the front-runner in this race.
Just look at how quickly various forces went on the attack against Emanuel. There was muttering about Dart at last week’s City Council meeting, too, but it was more restrained.
If the other contenders gang up on Dart, there’s still no telling who could slide to the front.
Copyright 2010 Chicago Sun-Times, Inc.