Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI)
WASHINGTON, DC: According to a major report coming from the Washington Post, reports of credible terrorist threats against the United States are at their lowest level since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, according to U.S. intelligence officials and federal and state law enforcement authorities.
The intelligence community’s daily threat assessment, developed after the terrorist attacks to keep policymakers informed, lists, on average, 25 to 50 percent fewer threats against domestic targets than it typically did during the past two years, said one senior counterterrorism official.
Many counterterrorism officials think al-Qaeda and like-minded groups are focusing on Americans deployed in Iraq, where they operate with relative impunity, and on Europe.
Though some are expressing caution and even skepticism, interviews last week with 25 current or recently retired officials also cited progress in counterterrorism operations abroad and a more experienced homeland-security apparatus for a general feeling that it is more difficult for terrorists to operate undetected. The officials represent federal intelligence and law enforcement agencies, state and local homelandsecurity departments and the private sector.
“We are breathing easier,” said U.S. Capitol Police Chief Terrance Gainer, whose officers guard one of al-Qaida’s expressed targets and who is regularly briefed by the FBI and CIA. “The imminence of a threat seems to have diminished. We’re just not as worried as we were a year ago, but we certainly are as vigilant.”
“I agree,” said John Brennan, acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told of Gainer’s assessment. “Progress has been made.”
Excerpt above from original story that can be found at: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/30/AR2005043000704.html (Requires registration)
Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) Analysis:
ERRI spokesman and senior analyst Clark Staten said of the WP report, “We in the U.S. have made definite progress in the battle against terrorism.” “But, that said, on-going indicators and warnings would suggest to us that many vulnerabilities and enemies remain,” Staten continued.
“As far as the number of threats being reported is concerned, we don’t find that particularly comforting -- we saw a similar drop-off in threat reporting during the Summer of 2001 -- and even read statements coming from some official quarters in Washington that the threat-level was being exaggerated,” the veteran counter-terrorism analyst added.
Staten, who four days before the 9/11 attack correctly warned the public on the NYC WABC radio Batchelor and Alexander show about an imminent threat from Usama Bin Laden (UBL) and Al-Qaeda, said that his big fear is about increasing complacency within the public in general, and even in “official Washington.”
“After a period of time there is a general tendency to move on with our regular lives and forget about the horrors of 9/11,” Staten continued. “In fact, that may be what the ‘bad guys’ are waiting and hoping for...an opportunity created by our normal tendency to want to return to a pre-9/11 norm,” he added. “Additionally, our current assessment considers the fact that Al-Qaeda planned the 9/11 attacks for several years and that they are known for their extensive surveillance and planning activities prior to a major attack,” Staten said.
“At this time, we remain concerned that Al-Qaeda is in the midst of planning an attack so spectacular that it will surpass 9/11...we believe that they want to top themselves,” Staten added. “For example, had the ‘bad guys’ wanted to detonate a series of car/truck bombs in several U.S. cities...we believe that they could have done so at almost any time, but those tactics probably wouldn’t create the dramatic ‘tipping point’ that Bin Laden, Zawahiri, and Zarqawi so strongly desire,” the ERRI spokesman said.
“Our analysis suggests that the international Islamic terrorist movement (read: Al-Qaeda and all ideologically associated organizations and individuals) wants a terrorist event in the United States so devastating that it will cause a major change in U.S. foreign policy involving the Mid-East in particular and the larger Ummah (the nation of the believers in Islam) in general,” Staten added.
Source: Emergency.com/ERRI