Key takeaways
- Budget cuts linked to public safety decline: Cities facing reduced tax revenue risk cutting essential police services, which can lead to higher crime rates and public dissatisfaction.
- “Defund the police” impacts still felt: The push to reallocate police funds during the pandemic led to staffing shortages, early retirements and recruitment challenges that continue to strain departments.
- Emerging tech can offset staffing shortfalls: AI, drones and digital evidence management tools are helping some agencies maintain operational efficiency despite budget and personnel limits.
- Urban planning and economic policy affect policing: Work-from-home trends, retail closures and reduced foot traffic have slashed city budgets, showing the need for police to engage in broader civic planning.
- California offers a warning and a roadmap: Police leaders nationwide can learn from California’s challenges by proactively adopting technology, advocating for sustainable funding and preparing for long-term urban shifts.
By Commander Hector Miguel Jusino Jr., Ph.D.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a significant financial crisis for many major cities in the United States, challenging their ability to fund essential services like law enforcement. [1] Local governments that heavily rely on sales, revenue and property taxes were severely affected by the financial strain caused by the pandemic.
As a result, some cities began looking into different ways to raise funds, including increasing taxes and fees. However, some experts fear this approach could actually worsen the economic situation, leading to an exodus of residents from these cities and fueling an economic “doom loop.” [2] The “doom loop” is a vicious cycle that exacerbates the financial crisis, wherein reduced tax revenues lead to additional service cuts, people grow dissatisfied and leave, and the tax base shrinks further, resulting in a spiraling decline in quality of life that particularly affects perceptions of public safety and community well-being. [3]
| DOWNLOAD: 25 on 2025: A police leadership playbook
Due to the economic effects of COVID-19 and government policy decisions, some law enforcement agencies have experienced significant budget cuts. This has impacted their ability to maintain public safety. The nationwide push to reallocate funds from law enforcement as part of the “defund the police” movement exacerbated some of these impacts. [4-7]
The violent crime of recent years, however, has led some political leaders to reconsider their decisions to defund the police. In some major cities, budgets have now been restored to previous levels and, in some cases, even increased. [8] The lingering effects of the pandemic, though, have yet to be resolved.
Implications for urban municipalities and public safety
Among the aspects of COVID-19 that impacted the financial health of cities were work-from-home trends, urban migration, reduced foot traffic and declining revenue. [3, 9, 10] According to Stanford economist Nicolas Bloom, “Big city mayors are experiencing significant losses in tax revenue due to retail chain closures, decreased property values which have led a reduction in property, sales and occupancy tax revenues due to a decreased use of services within downtown areas.” [11] Additionally, conflicts among politicians impede efforts to tackle homelessness, violence, drug use and crime. Poor decision-making in these areas can lead to service reductions, further aggravating the doom loop. [12]
Reduced funding for police departments can have significant impacts, worsened by layoffs, furloughs and staff reductions. [2-13] More police officers patrolling visible areas can help reduce crime, but reduced budgets can hinder efforts to control officer misconduct and compromise officer safety. [14-15] The defunding movement and budget cuts prompted many officers to retire early, transfer to other agencies or quit. [8] As a result, agencies have had to scramble to get as many officers as possible. [8]
A potential solution would be for local governments to develop innovative strategies to secure funding for essential services. One strategy is to tax income-generating emerging businesses such as ecommerce and remote work, areas for which there is little or no taxation now. However, raising taxes alone is not enough to finance essential services. Sustainable funding requires a strong, growing economy that enhances the earning potential of the nation. [16] Research shows tax increases may impede growth, which is crucial for local government leaders wishing to boost revenue for vital services. [17] Therefore, local government leaders must thoughtfully weigh the potential negative implications of taxation on economic growth in their decision-making processes.
Another alternative could be repurposing or reimagining urban spaces to promote community building, business and economic development. In the long term, these changes would result in a future where cities are healthy and prosperous but would take time and involve significant investments from local governments. [18-19] Today, however, the issue of funding necessary safety services remains.
Technological solutions to counteract funding cuts
Technology could provide the solution to these challenges. Recent advances in technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, drones, augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), and the Internet of Things are reshaping various industries. These advances are also poised to bring positive transformation to policing.
Law enforcement and police tech entrepreneurs are just starting to realize the potential of AI algorithms that can predict where crime is likely to occur, robots that can intervene in hostage situations without risking human life, facial recognition algorithms that can aid in finding missing children and identifying criminals, gunshot detection that can reduce police response times to incidents, and body-worn cameras that can help ensure accountability. [20]
| WATCH: How robots are revolutionizing public safety
These advancements are only a hint of what is yet to come. Most promising among the many are:
- Digital evidence management: Digitizing evidence management promises to save time, increase efficiency and enhance cooperation among stakeholders in the criminal justice system. [20-21] A digital evidence management system (DEMS) is a centralized platform for collecting evidence, with a data correlation engine that can search all connected systems to identify potentially relevant case evidence. [21] DEMS allow investigators to swiftly gather evidence and facilitate its sharing.
- AI to reduce workloads: AI technology can potentially reduce investigators’ workload through facial recognition. This technology can also effectively predict crime and support reduction strategies. A study at the University of California, Berkeley found that integrating AI in Shreveport, Louisiana led to a 35% decrease in burglaries and a 26% decrease in vehicle thefts. [22]
- UAVs: Unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) used for policing, especially drone as first responder programs, offer agile response mechanisms that circumvent ground-based response delays. They provide real-time data for emergency calls, enhancing situational awareness, reducing response times and promoting safety. They can help prevent tragic incidents in nonemergency situations. [23] In California, UAVs have allowed the Chula Vista Police Department to arrive at critical emergency scenes almost three minutes faster than patrol vehicles. This has enabled officers to better prepare for situations while receiving live visuals from scenes. [23]
Technologies in partnership with police can be beneficial in cities of all types and sizes. Even more progressive cities like San Francisco have begun to recognize the necessity to ease restrictions on the use of surveillance technology such as drones. [24] This could not come at a better time. [25] The city faces a grim financial forecast, with an anticipated budget deficit of $245 million over the next fiscal year. [26] By utilizing technologies like UAVs, police departments such as San Francisco’s can address staffing shortages, ensuring public safety while maintaining financial sustainability and developing tools with technology companies to meet specific needs. [23, 27]
Snapshot: How tech is reshaping police work
Click each box to explore technology’s impact on law enforcement:
Digital evidence management systems (DEMS) centralize storage of video, photo, and digital files, enabling faster, more secure collaboration across units and jurisdictions. These systems reduce manual processes, preserve chain of custody, and streamline courtroom prep.
AI helps agencies process data faster — from analyzing video to identifying suspects using facial recognition. In one city, AI use led to a 35% drop in burglaries. It allows investigators to prioritize leads and automate low-value tasks so they can focus on solving cases.
Police drones offer live scene footage before officers arrive, improving response safety and decision-making. In Chula Vista, drones cut average response time by nearly 3 minutes — giving ground units critical insight in high-risk calls and improving situational awareness.
Conclusion
The challenges faced by public safety agencies due to budget cuts and the threat of an ongoing doom loop require prompt and effective action. Implementing technology, including AI, robotics, drones and AR/VR, could offer solutions to the current challenges law enforcement faces. Technology can help improve efficiency, replace officers in the field during shortages and improve both responses to crime and prevention. Local governments must prioritize and allocate sufficient resources to guarantee public safety and support the future well-being of their citizens. [28]
| WATCH: Generative AI in law enforcement: Questions police chiefs need to answer
References
- Brasuell J. From “urban exodus” to “urban doom loop.” Planetizen. December 2022.
- McFarland CK, Rivett B. Fiscal impact of the pandemic recession on cities, towns and villages. National League of Cities. 2021.
- Arroyo N, Li R. Owners are walking away from downtown S.F. buildings. San Francisco Chronicle. June 2023.
- Associated Press. LAPD funding slashed by $150M, reducing number of officers. APNews.com. June 2020.
- Associated Press. Law enforcement struggles to recruit since killing of George Floyd. New York Post. June 2021.
- Denkman L. City council votes to slash LAPD budget by $150 million. LAist. July 2020.
- Merrefield C. ‘Defund the police’: What it means and what the research says on whether more police presence reduces crime. The Journalist’s Resource. June 2021.
- Dudley J. The fallout from the ‘defund’ movement. Police1. May 2021.
- Castillo A. With the rise of remote work, American cities face an ‘urban doom loop’ as revenue declines. American City and County. January 2023.
- Van Nieuwerburgh S. The remote work revolution: Impact on real estate values and the urban environment. SSRN Electronic Journal. December 2022.
- Sexton J. The urban doom loop could be bad news for Democrats. Hot Air. March 2023.
- Hammond G, Kinder T. What if San Francisco never pulls out of its “doom loop”? Financial Times. May 2023.
- DiSalvo D, McGillis J. Big city pensions and the urban doom loop. Manhattan Institute. April 2023.
- Rushin S, Michalski R. Police funding. SSRN. March 2020.
- Weisburd D, Petersen K, Zastrow T, et al. PROTOCOL: Police stops to reduce crime: A systematic review. Wiley Online Library. May 2021.
- Tax Policy Center. On what do economists agree and disagree about the effects of taxes on economic growth.
- McBride W. What is the evidence on taxes and growth? Tax Foundation. December 2012.
- Loh TH, Kim J. To recover from COVID-19, downtowns must adapt. Brookings. April 2021.
- Loh TH, Love H. Breaking the ‘urban doom loop’: The future of downtowns is shared prosperity. Brookings. March 2023.
- Johnson A, Egan E, Londoño J. Police tech: Exploring the opportunities and fact-checking the criticisms. Information Technology & Innovation Foundation. January 2023.
- Open Access Government. Police departments turn to digital transformation to lower costs. October 2020.
- SOSi. Protecting the future: The impact of AI on federal law enforcement. March 2024.
- Solis G. First responder drones improve police response and efficiency. Governing. February 2020.
- Regimbal A. Facial recognition drones, more police pursuits approved by San Francisco voters. SFGate.com. March 2024.
- Smith T. San Francisco faces severe police staffing deficit. Bay Area Telegraph. April 2024.
- Baustin N. San Francisco in a ‘tough spot’ as $1.4B budget deficit looms. San Francisco Standard. January 2024.
- King S, Major S, McCollum M. Drone as first responder programs: A new paradigm in policing. MITRE. August 2023.
- Walters D. Newsom paints rosy, but flawed, economic picture. Cal Matters. May 2021.
About the author
Commander Hector M. Jusino Jr. joined the San Francisco Police Department in 1994 and is currently assigned to the Field Operations Bureau as the Commander of Night Operations. In this role, he oversees citywide night captains, the night operations of the Drug Market Agency Coordination Center (DMACC), the sideshow response unit, and major events, both spontaneous and planned, ensuring the safety of San Francisco during the evening hours. He has experience in patrol and in administration.
He holds an MBA in Public Administration and a Ph.D. in Business Administration with a specialization in Criminal Justice, focusing his research on leadership and organizational behavior during times of organizational change. Additionally, he has earned an Executive Certificate from Cornell University and serves as a part-time Adjunct Professor, teaching courses in police leadership, management, and criminal justice. Hector is also a graduate of the POST Command College Class 72.
He is married and has two grown children, one of whom is an Air Force veteran.
This article is based on research conducted as a part of the CA POST Command College. It is a futures study of a particular emerging issue of relevance to law enforcement. Its purpose is not to predict the future; rather, to project a variety of possible scenarios useful for planning and action in anticipation of the emerging landscape facing policing organizations.
The article was created using the futures forecasting process of Command College and its outcomes. Managing the future means influencing it — creating, constraining and adapting to emerging trends and events in a way that optimizes the opportunities and minimizes the threats of relevance to the profession.
