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The Terrorist Planning Cycle: Indicators and Clues for Law Enforcement

Ed Note: Two weeks ago, less than a dozen militants held at bay some 800 well-trained police for 60 hours, throwing a major metropolitan area into utter chaos, and leaving law enforcement officers around the globe thinking: “What will we do when this happens on our watch?”

Police1 has collected the thoughts of several people in law enforcement with the purpose of kick-starting a dialog about how the events in Mumbai provide an opportunity to consider the nature of the threat we may one day face here in the U.S. We encourage you to read the opinions and analysis here and to participate in this discussion.

The following contribution represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of Police1, Praetorian Group, or our sponsors.


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Counterterrorism on the front lines

By Morgan Wright
The recent events in Mumbai have again demonstrated the importance of the uniformed law enforcement officer as the front line of defense against terrorism. Based on initial reports from the interrogation of the surviving terrorist (one of ten), there are several pieces of information that clearly show how the terrorists engaged in classic actions consistent with the terrorist planning cycle.

While there is no universal method for terrorists to plan, to achieve their objectives certain activities and actions have to take place. Over time, many models have been developed. They generally have these steps in common:
1. Broad Target Selection
2. Intelligence and Surveillance
3. Specific Target Selection
4. Pre-attack Surveillance and Planning
5. Attack Rehearsal
6. Actions on Objective
7. Escape and Evasion

Uniformed LEO’s – the tip of the spear – can have an impact in at least six of the seven stages. In the video blog that accompanies this post, I go into more detail about where you - the LEO - can make a difference and help prevent the next attack. Be sure to click and watch the video below for much more on how patrol officers can watch for and respond to elements of the terrorist planning cycle.

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